Macro & Policy
BusinessThe latest on Macro & Policy from our Business desk.
Stock futures little changed as traders weigh earnings, Fed
U.S. stock futures barely moved after Wall Street ended higher, as investors turned to corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Dow futures slipped 8 points, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.1%. Traders also watched technology shares after Anthropic filed to go public.
Fat cat bank bosses earn £8.9m as windfall tax looms
The TUC says chief executives at Britain’s four biggest banks earned an average £8.9 million last year, far above the average full-time worker’s pay. The union body is urging Chancellor John Healey to raise the bank profits surcharge in the Budget and use the proceeds to cut household energy bills. Banks have reported rising profits as interest rates stayed higher for longer.
Thailand assesses trade risks as protests unsettle Europe
Thailand’s Commerce Ministry is assessing whether protests in six European countries could disrupt exports, transport and logistics. The EU accounted for US$34.69 billion in bilateral trade in the first eight months of 2026. Officials have urged exporters to consider alternative routes, market diversification and extended cargo insurance while the situation develops.
London really most-taxed city? Paris data challenges claim
UK Finance’s PwC report puts London’s total tax rate for a large bank at 46.2%, but excludes Paris. Guardian calculations, reviewed by an accountancy firm, put the rate for the same bank in Paris between 51.6% and 57.3%. The dispute has sharpened ahead of next week’s budget, when banks face a possible tax increase.
£300 rule England homes cuts charger installation costs
England has removed the planning-permission requirement for cross-pavement electric-vehicle chargers, allowing eligible drivers without driveways to save up to £300 on installation. The change took effect on October 21, according to the Government announcement reported by the Daily Express. Drivers will still need approval for the pavement crossing, and financial advisers say the saving does not remove the wider costs of buying and running an electric car.
UK Confidence Sinks as Cost Pressures Hit Households
UK consumer confidence fell sharply in October as rising living costs and the economic fallout from the Middle East war squeezed households. GfK’s index dropped 11 points to -24, while its major purchase measure fell to -22. The figures put pressure on Chancellor John Healey ahead of his first budget, with energy bills and borrowing costs adding to the challenge.
Faisal Islam: Inflation and borrowing squeeze UK Budget
UK inflation reached 3.5% and government debt topped £3 trillion, while borrowing ran ahead of forecasts. BBC economics editor Faisal Islam says the figures sharpen the challenge facing Chancellor John Healey as he prepares next week’s Budget. Rising prices also affect benefits and the State Pension, while higher borrowing costs add pressure to public finances.
UK State Pension Set for £500 Annual Rise in 2027
The UK’s full new state pension is set to rise by 3.9% in 2027 after September inflation came in below wage growth. The increase follows the triple lock, which uses the highest of inflation, earnings growth or 2.5%. The higher payment would take the annual total above the personal allowance, though the source says pensioners relying only on the state pension have an exemption from tax.
UK inflation rate rises 3.5% as fuel costs jump
UK inflation rose to 3.5% in the year to September, driven mainly by higher petrol and diesel prices, according to the Office for National Statistics. The increase comes before Chancellor John Healey’s Budget and could affect benefit rises next April. Higher inflation has also added to government borrowing costs, while economists say it may increase pressure on the Bank of England’s next interest-rate decision.
France braces debt sell-off as protests deepen budget strain
Violent protests over living costs and school conditions are adding pressure to France’s bond market as the government struggles to pass a budget and control debt. French borrowing costs have risen faster than Germany’s, and analysts warn political uncertainty could keep the gap widening even if European bond markets recover.
Roaring exports lift China’s growth as Europe reels
Strong exports lifted China’s economic growth, while unrest in France put pressure on the euro and French government bonds. The Guardian’s business live report also tracked declines in French and Italian markets, as investors watched the widening gap between French and German bond yields and awaited a review of France’s credit rating by Moody’s.
IMF Urges Support for Poorer Nations Hit by War Shocks
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says poorer countries face rising debt costs, inflation and energy shocks from conflicts. Low-income countries now spend 8 to 14 percent of revenue on debt repayments, while the IMF says it can help restructure debt and attract financing. Georgieva also outlined support talks with Iraq and Lebanon.
Warsh Offers No Rate-Cut Signal as Inflation Remains Above Fed Target
Inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal for more than five years, leaving households and markets watching closely for clues on borrowing c...
Dow rises 500 points as investors shift beyond AI stocks
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 556.21 points as investors moved toward stocks outside technology amid concerns about AI spending and persistent inflation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also finished higher, while producer prices posted their biggest monthly and yearly gains since 2022, according to CNBC.
Paul Tudor Jones Warns 2027 Could Challenge U.S. Stocks as Share Sales Grow
Paul Tudor Jones warned that 2027 could bring a difficult backdrop for U.S. stocks as major technology offerings and secondary share sales add to equity supply. He said buybacks and mergers that supported the market’s four-year bull run are turning, while the fiscal deficit and oil prices pose further risks. Jones compared current conditions to 1999 and said the market may be nearing a point where it forces action on deficits.
Healey Faces Pressure Over Taxes as Businesses Warn of Inflation and Jobs Risks
With Britain’s public finances under strain, Chancellor John Healey faces competing demands ahead of the Oct. 28 Budget: raise taxes to shore up the governme...
Inflation Is Pushing Early Retirement Out of Reach for Many Americans
Prices have climbed 29% since April 2020, and many Americans say that rising costs have made the goal of retiring early harder to reach. The
Bond Yields Surging Worldwide Put France on the Risky Side
Bond yields are climbing across major markets, with France facing particular concern over debt risks as protests over proposed budget cuts coincide with market stress. Analysts also point to oil prices, economic growth and shifts in Japanese investment as factors behind the global rise.
Four Years, $40 Trillion: AI Bull Market Faces Its Next Test
A Barron’s headline describes a four-year bull market that has added $40 trillion, with artificial intelligence at its center. But available reports provide only the headline, not the underlying analysis or supporting market data, leaving the case for further gains unconfirmed.
Stock Market Week Ahead: Earnings and Data in Focus
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended the week with modest gains, just below record highs and above their 21-day exponential moving averages. Investor’s Business Daily says earnings and economic data are due, with bank reports and the start of AI-related earnings drawing attention. The report gives no individual release schedule or forecasts.
Fed’s Unanimous September Rate Hike Faces a Changed Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s September rate rise had unanimous backing. Since then, softer inflation and slower hiring have complicated the case for another increas...
Fed Minutes Show Officials See More Work Ahead to Bring Inflation Down
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, keeping the prospect of higher borrowing costs in play. Minutes from the September policy meeting show...
Dow futures drop 400 as oil, Treasury yields climb
U.S. stock futures fell as rising Treasury yields and higher oil prices renewed inflation concerns. Dow futures dropped 510 points, while Brent crude rose 5.1% to $105.33 per barrel. Investors also weighed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s warning that more rate hikes may be needed and looked ahead to earnings and weekly jobless claims data.
Dow falls 500 points? Treasury yields pressure stocks
U.S. stocks closed lower as Treasury yields climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 341.41 points, while the 10-year yield reached 5.365% before easing after a Treasury auction. Bank and technology shares also declined as investors weighed borrowing costs and the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.