Spain Election Tests Fragile Support for Von der Leyen in Europe
European Parliament Vice-President Javi López and France 24 correspondent Dave Keating discussed Spain’s approaching general election and its implications for Europe with Agenda Pública’s Marc López Plana. Their conversation covered Pedro Sánchez’s influence, the fragile majority supporting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and tensions over migration, the Green Deal and cooperation with the radical right.
Javi López and Dave Keating say Spain’s 29 November general election will also matter for Europe, as political tensions test the fragile majority supporting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The European Parliament vice-president and France 24’s Brussels correspondent discussed the stakes with Marc López Plana, editor and director of Agenda Pública.
The conversation linked Spain’s campaign to the balance of power in European politics. It also examined the role of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose influence Keating described as unusually significant for the centre-left.
“Sánchez is something of the last man standing,” Keating said.
He called Sánchez “probably the most influential leader of the European centre-left since Tony Blair” and argued that without him, “the traditional centre-left would lose almost its only prominent voice at that table.”
Fragile support for von der Leyen
López discussed tensions among the political forces supporting von der Leyen. He warned that the Socialist group could withdraw its backing if the agenda focused exclusively on restrictive migration policies, deregulation and weakening the Green Deal.
“If it ultimately led to a successful vote of no confidence, the entire Commission would have to be replaced,” López said.
That warning places the Commission’s support at the centre of the political debate. The discussion did not describe a successful no-confidence vote; López set out what could follow if one succeeded.
Keating also focused on cooperation between the centre-right and the radical right. He argued that Europe’s governing arrangements cannot remain stable if parliament operates with competing majorities.
“No parliament can function sustainably with two competing governing majorities,” he said. Keating added that governing can expose a party’s limitations, but does not guarantee that the party will weaken.
Migration, Germany and the wider contest
The speakers also addressed European industrial policy and the prospect of a Germany led by the Alternative for Germany party, referred to in the source as AfD. Keating said such a government could signal a fundamental break in Europe’s direction, describing it as potentially “even the end of the European Union as we know it.”
On China, López said: “I would not recommend opening a third geopolitical front with China.” Keating separately suggested US President Donald Trump could focus on foreign policy and tariffs, areas where he said the president enjoys considerable freedom.
The discussion touched on the Ceuta crisis and the initial lack of solidarity between European governments. López said governments from the European People’s Party used the crisis to attack Spain’s progressive government. He also stressed Spain’s reliance on Moroccan cooperation to manage migration.
Keating addressed what a Marine Le Pen presidency in France could mean for European integration. “I don't see any scenario in which the European Union as we know it survives Marine Le Pen becoming president of France,” he said.
Agenda Pública’s conversation connects Spain’s election debate to disputes over the Commission, migration and Europe’s political alliances, with the vote scheduled for 29 November.
